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Construction machinery industry: after the high-growth consolidation gaining

Font Size: [Big][Mid][Small] 2011-12-28  Views: 756

2000-in 2010, fixed assets investment rate of 23.6% annual growth, industry sales revenue from 48 billion yuan to 2010 years of 436.7 billion yuan, a eight times the 2000 years of growth, the compound annual growth rate of 24.7%. The future industry planning by 2015, sales income is expected to be 900 billion yuan, five years compound growth rate of 17%, industry growth slowing long-term.

The boom of industry fell gradually, sales income growth slowing gradually

With the industry sales growth continued decline, industry total revenues and profits growth slowed from month to month, 2011-September 1, scale above enterprises to realize the main income is 392.7 billion yuan RMB, a 36.8% growth year; Total profit of 38.5 billion yuan, up 26.1%. Look from growth, since February 2011 monthly drop about 3% growth, industry profit growth the rate of decline seems to be faster.

Finished goods up growth reaches as high as 63.2%, the industry inventory pressure began to ease, but still great pressure. Industry capacity expansion sharply, the future competition.

2010 years of industry sales lasts hot, main businesses increase investment, to expand capacity, three quarters of the main enterprise capital expenditure year-on-year growth of 50.6%. To excavator, for example, at home and abroad in recent years engineering machinery enterprises expand capacity, our estimate 2012 excavator production capacity of 385300 units, to 2015 domestic excavator output will reach 500000 units.

And from the demand to see, the future industry from the size of the market rapidly growing power certainly will will abate, growth will gradually returned to normal steady growth. Industry is expected to peak in 2020 appear before and after, demand for years in 30-350000 units or so, so the expected future competition in the field will be fierce.

ChanXu imbalances, capacity utilization drop in industry ROE will slow drop

In recent years, the main products capacity expansion, and diversified development strategy led to the industry trend line horizontal competition intensifies, industry of circulation to inventory the process will continue next year to the first quarter, the imbalance of supply and demand, the industry capacity utilization drop, the future industry high ROE will fell gradually.

Industry into setting, competition, leading enterprises will eventually win out

The future industry will face increased competition, downstream demand will slow and the competition in the future will focus on the quality of the products, brand, sales channels, after-sales service and supporting ability of comprehensive capability of ascension. Leading enterprise has abundant capital advantage, technology research and development ability, product diversification and a global strategic layout, in the fierce competition in the final "the strong constant stronger."

Industry trend of investment opportunities, looking forward to stage the fall rebound. Engineering machinery for the short-term economic degrees, fell back ChanXu imbalances reduce industry profitability, expect 2012 industry the sustainability of the lack of investment opportunities.

At the same time, the engineering machinery belong to short cycle industry, and most closely national macroeconomic regulation and control policy, the policy response to the direction of the most sensitive. The macro economy next year will face "protect the growth OR control inflation" choice, looking forward to policy may turn to bring down time of super rebound.


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